F1-FALL-RISK-PREDICTION2026 · Predictive ML · safety

Seven-day fall-risk prediction

A reproducible fall-risk prioritisation workflow for fictional aged-care residents, connecting calibrated baselines, review capacity, human explanations, failure analysis, and simulated monitoring.

Fictional aged-care review queue showing risk bands, factor explanations, and safety warnings

Decision and workflow

The workflow scores fictional aged-care resident-days for a seven-day fall outcome. Its decision is prioritisation for human review, not diagnosis or autonomous care. The design treats review capacity, false negatives, missing data, and repeat alerts as part of the problem definition.

System approach

The project uses resident-disjoint, point-in-time synthetic data and compares calibrated logistic regression with boosted trees. A Streamlit review queue presents risk bands, indicative factor explanations, missing-data warnings, and an explicit clinical-safety boundary.

Baseline and evaluation

The selected logistic model is evaluated with average precision, calibration, subgroup slices, confusion matrices, and recall at fixed review capacities. The held-out evidence is intentionally shown beside prevalence and workload assumptions so a recruiter can inspect what the numbers do and do not establish.

Operational boundary

The system prioritises a conversation with a qualified reviewer. It does not diagnose a resident, recommend treatment, or claim clinical effectiveness. The project documents representation uncertainty, threshold assumptions, and the difference between a portfolio simulation and real-world deployment.

Reproducibility

The repository includes data generation and validation, leakage controls, baseline and candidate models, demo records, evaluation reports, failure analysis, and simulated monitoring for drift, missingness, alert volume, and delayed calibration.

Selected evidence

Each visual answers a specific question about system behavior. Read the caption and limitation together.

Held-out fall-risk result showing discrimination, calibration, and review-capacity metrics
Hero resultThe main result connects ranking quality and calibration to the staffing decision: how much review capacity is available. Limitation: Outcomes are synthetic and not clinical validation.
Precision and recall across five to twenty-five percent review capacity
Review capacityThe workflow makes the precision-recall trade-off explicit instead of hiding it behind a default threshold. Limitation: The staffing capacity is a portfolio assumption.
Subgroup error analysis by age, prior falls, and mobility impairment
Subgroup analysisSlices surface where ranking behavior changes and where evidence remains uncertain. Limitation: Small synthetic slices should not be interpreted as population estimates.
Simulated monitoring dashboard showing drift, missingness, alert volume, and delayed calibration
MonitoringThe system includes signals for feature drift, missingness, alert volume, and delayed-outcome calibration degradation. Limitation: The incident is simulated.
Batch fall-risk scoring architecture with delayed truth, monitoring, and human review boundary
ArchitectureScoring, delayed truth, monitoring, and the human review boundary are separated. Limitation: This is not a deployed clinical service.